Reform UK has recorded its highest level of support in Scotland in a new opinion poll, putting Nigel Farage’s party on course to win 14 seats in Holyrood.

The Survation poll, conducted for public affairs agency Quantum Communications, also shows the SNP remains on track to be the largest party – but with fewer MSPs.

It was conducted before this week’s announcement on benefit cuts which today prompted former Labour MSP Neil Findlay to resign from the party.

The SNP, Scottish Labour, and the Scottish Conservatives all face being squeezed by the rise of Reform. whose strongest support on the regional list vote is among those aged 16 to 24, replicating a shift to right-wing populist parties across the UK and Europe.

Experts said Scottish Labour will need to win back voters from both the SNP and Reform to mount a challenge in the May 2026 contest, although the party is polling in first place in its target Central Scotland and Glasgow constituency areas.

The Survation poll of 1,012 people in Scotland puts the SNP on 34% of the constituency share and 29% on the regional vote. Compared with January, that is down one percentage point and two points respectively.

Scottish Labour is up one point to 23% in the constituency vote and down one point on the list to 20%.

Reform has risen sharply to 17% in the constituency vote share, and 16% on the list, which are the highest figures it has ever recorded in a Scottish poll.

According to calculations by the Diffley Partnership this would result in 55 seats for the SNP, 19 for Labour, 17 for the Conservatives, 14 for Reform, 13 for the Lib Dems, 10 for the Greens and one for Alba.

The findings come amid an ongoing feud between Mr Farage and suspended MP Rupert Lowe, while polling was largely undertaken following a press conference in Glasgow where deputy leader Richard Tice was unable to name two councillors who had defected to Reform.

Professor Nicola McEwen, director of the Centre for Public Policy at the University of Glasgow, said: “The rise of Reform across the UK has been one of the key features of polling in the last year.

“Until now, Scotland had seemed to buck the trend, but this poll puts Reform UK at its highest share of the vote in Scotland to date.

“The poll suggests Reform UK could be a real contender for constituency seats in those regions where it has most support, especially Central Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, and the West of Scotland. 

“The party is also polling strongly in party list preferences… in the three regions where it is strongest, Reform UK now has around the same vote share as Labour. 

“Although small numbers in the sample point to the need for caution, 16 to 24-year-olds represent Reform’s strongest voter group by age. 

“This is not unique to Scotland. Across the UK and Europe, far right parties today appear able to capture support from young people to levels normally associated with the far left.”

Alan Roden, co-founder of Quantum Communications, said: “Reform is eating into the vote of all the main parties. It continues to gain support despite a bout of infighting among its MPs, a calamitous trip to Scotland by the UK deputy leader, and the absence of a Scottish leader.

“But the 2026 election still remains highly competitive, with the SNP well down on its 2021 result, Labour ahead of its main rival in central Scotland and Glasgow seats, and the Lib Dems performing well in their key target areas of Edinburgh and the Highlands.”

Mark Diffley, the founder of Diffley Partnership, said: “SNP vote share has continued to stabilise in the mid-30s, representing a recovery from the party’s showing at the 2024 UK general election – although still a significant fall from the 48% recorded at the last Holyrood election in 2021. 

“Nonetheless, if this result were repeated next year, it would be substantially the biggest party again at Holyrood and may have the opportunity to form a pro-independence majority with support from the Scottish Greens and Alba.”

He added: “Labour and the Conservatives will be most disappointed by the poll with both parties losing ground. Only six in 10 of those who voted Labour last year intend to do so again, with the party losing support to the SNP and Reform in equal measure.

“This makes Labour’s task very difficult, but it needs to win back voters from both the SNP and Reform if it is going recover ground and challenge next year.”

The poll was conducted by Survation on behalf of Quantum Communications. Methodology: online interviews of Scots aged 16+, fieldwork March 6-13, sample size 1,012.