With the FTSE 350 banks index up by almost 50% in the past year, shareholders will be looking for further growth as the big high street players deliver year-end results this week.

Ahead of Barclays announcing figures on Thursday, Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, will meet bank bosses on Wednesday for a fresh round of talks on how to boost the economy.

Those attending are expected to include Georges Elhedery, HSBC Holdings’ CEO; Debbie Crosbie, CEO of Nationwide; Charlie Nunn, the Lloyds Banking Group chief; Paul Thwaite, NatWest CEO; and senior representatives of Barclays and Santander UK.

As for the banks’ own figures, dDeposits were down slightly at both Barclays and NatWest (RBS) in the third quarter, though NatWest did show its ninth consecutive quarter of loan growth.

Helped by interest rates staying higher for longer, net interest margins were strong throughout 2024 and began to grow again. That has boosted net interest income and should please shareholders, says AJ Bell.

It asks whether higher interest rates will lead to higher loan and asset impairments, but notes there is little sign of that yet.

Litigation and conduct costs have also been minimal in the past year, though analysts and investors will be on the look-out for any comments regarding the car financing market. The government has sought to intervene to cap any fine, but the Supreme Court will sit in judgement in early April. This may be more of an issue for Lloyds (reporting next week) than at either Barclays or NatWest.

Barclays’ much-discussed investment bank will also be scrutinised, given the historic volatility of its earnings and the current relative dearth of initial public offerings, even though global stock markets are generally looking better.

Consensus estimates for pre-tax profits are £8.1 billion at Barclays, against £6.6bn in 2023, and £6.1bn at NatWest, versus £6.2bn a year ago

A forecast dividend for NatWest of just over 19.4p a share gives a total cash return of £4.8 billion when added to its already completed buybacks, or 14% of its market cap. The UK government’s stake is now below 10% and there are expectations that it will be fully back in private hands this year.

BP

BP’s shares are trying to rally from two-and-a-half-year lows and AJ Bell says shareholders are becoming restless as they wait for it to clarify its strategy on oil and gas production, renewable energy and the future direction of the group.

Before his sudden departure in 2023, CEO Bernard Looney had already trimmed the 2030 target for a cut in oil and gas production from 40% to 25%, even if the long-term target of reaching net zero was left unchanged.

Investors have continued to question whether the pace of movement is too fast, given the perception that renewable projects offer lower returns on investment, and require different skillsets, since the customers, end markets and supply chains are different from the oil and gas industry.

US rivals have tended to focus on hydrocarbons, either through exploration work or acquisition, as evidenced by ExxonMobil’s swoop for shale specialist Pioneer Natural Resources and Chevron’s bid to buy Hess.

Oil prices are broadly flat on a year ago and analysts expect 2024 underlying replacement cost profit after tax of $9bn, down from $13.8bn in 2023.

BP has nudged its quarterly dividend back up to $0.08 per share (the equivalent of 6.3p a share in Q3). Add in a buyback and BP will have returned around $12.3bn to shareholders in 2024, or 15% of its current stock market capitalisation.

Investment trusts

Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust, the last of seven trusts that have been targeted by New York hedge fund Saba Capital, will hold a general meeting to vote on Saba’s call for the board to step down. All six meetings so far held have favoured the incumbent board and it will be a surprise if EWIT shareholders buck that trend.

DIARY

Monday 10 February

• Full-year results from Porvair
• Trading update from Tui

Tuesday 11 February

• Full-year results from BP,
• First-half results from Dunelm, MJ Gleeson and PZ Cussons
• Trading statements from Bellway
• British Retail Consortium UK retail sales figures

Wednesday 12 February

• First-half results from Barratt Redrow
• US inflation

Thursday 13 February

• Full-year results from Barclays
• First-half results from Renishaw
• Trading statement from Tate & Lyle
• UK GDP growth figures from the ONS
• UK manufacturing, industrial and construction output growth

Friday 14 February

• Full-year results from NatWest
• Trading update from United Utilities
• Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust holds general meeting
• EU GDP growth
• US retail sales