Ipsos data

Mordaunt and Shapps at risk as Tory vote slumps

Peny Mordaunt
Penny Mordaunt could lose her seat on 4 July

Labour remains on course for a landslide general election victory with senior Tories Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt among those who could lose their seats.

In data collected after Nigel Farage announced he was returning to lead Reform UK, Ipsos MRP projects Labour to win 453 seats and up to 462, with the Conservatives holding on to 115 but possibly falling to 99. The SNP would fall to 15 seats.

The model suggests Mr Farage winning in Clacton, but former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn losing in Islington North.

High profile Conservatives who are at risk of losing their seats include Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, former leadership contender and leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt, Educatiuon Secretary Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer, and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt faces a tight race, while Home Secretary James Cleverly and Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch look likely to hold on.

The data suggests 120 seats are still too close to call, with 117 having a winning margin of less than 5 points.

in 50 of these, the Conservatives are second, Labour in 43, and the Liberal Democrats 13. These figures showthat small changes in the parties’ performance could still lead to big changes in the final outcome. 

Key findings (number of seats):

  • Labour 453 (with a range of 439 to 462 seats)
  • Conservatives 115 (with a range of 99 to 123 seats)
  • Lib Dems 38 (with a range of 35 to 48 seats)
  • SNP 15 (with a range of 13 to 23 seats)
  • Plaid Cymru 4 (with a range of 2 to 5 seats)
  • Reform UK 3 (with range of 3 to 10 seats)
  • Greens 3 (with a range of 0 to 4 seats)

The implied vote shares from this model are Labour 43%, Conservative 25%, Reform UK 12%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Greens 6%, SNP 3%, Plaid Cymru 1%, and Other 1%.

Labour’s vote is increasing across the country, especially in Scotland and the North East, with more modest advances or even some drops in highly urban areas where they have been traditionally strong, like London, Liverpool, Manchester, and Birmingham. While Labour is also only picking up a few more votes in Wales, they could still gain 8 or 9 seats due to the decline in the Conservative vote.

The Conservatives fall to a record low of 115 seats on these estimates.  Rishi Sunak’s party is losing votes across the country, with particularly severe drops in the East and South of England, and across the Midlands. 

As was seen in the local elections, the raw survey data, even before modelling, suggests the Conservatives are losing vote share in the areas where they were strongest in 2019.

The fate of the SNP is still up in the air, with the implied vote shares in Scotland sitting at Labour 37%, SNP 36%, Conservative 14%, Reform UK 5%, Liberal Democrats 4%, and Greens 3%. 

The Ipsos MRP model shows the SNP are expected to win around 15 seats. They are currently at risk of losing 29 of their 2019 notional seats to Labour and 3 to the Liberal Democrats, while 8 are too close to call.  In total, 12 out of the 57 seats in Scotland are too close to call.

Reform UK is currently estimated to win relatively comfortably both Ashfield and Clacton, where Nigel Farage could overturn a massive Conservative majority.

North West Leicestershire also leans Reform (albeit with only a small lead) due to a collapse in the Conservative vote, leaving Labour in a possible second place. Overall, Reform UK gets its highest share of the vote in the North East, East Midlands, and East of England.

Mr Farage’s party is currently second in 30 constituencies, up from only 2 seats for the Brexit Party in 2019.

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