Weak growth

Scotland’s output lagging other UK regions


Scotland’s economic output remains weak

Scotland’s economic output remained subdued in the first three months of the year compared to other parts of the UK.

PwC’s UK Economic Outlook found that the gross value added (GVA) increased by 0.3% in Scotland over the three months to February this year, while London rose by 0.9%, Northern Ireland by 0.6% and the north west and east of England by 0.5%.

Wales, the East Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber also all outperformed Scotland with 0.4% rises.

The south west, southeast and north east of England along with the West Midlands had the weakest performance in the period with 0.2% growth.

PwC said Scotland’s slower pace of growth was partly a result of its exposure to the manufacturing sector and other industries that have experienced supply chain problems.

Jason Morris, head of PwC in Scotland, said: “Whilst it’s encouraging to see the Scottish economy strengthening and a more positive outlook with regards to any potential recession in 2023, the differences in growth rates in the north versus the south still points to an ongoing productivity gap that must be addressed.”

PwC expects the UK to avoid recession this year, with growth of 0.1% and 1% in 2024, rising to 1.6% by end of 2025 as inflation pressures start to significantly ease over coming months. 

PwC’s modelling anticipates Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to return to target of 2% by the end of next year, although there is a risk price increases remain higher in food and services.

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