New poll

10-point lead for opponents of independence

independence march Edinburgh October 2018

Waning support for independence and Humza Yousaf, according to new poll (pic: Terry Murden)

Support for the union has risen since Humza Yousaf became the leader of the Scottish National Party, with No voters gaining a 10-point lead over those wanting independence.

A new poll also shows Labour significantly narrowing the gap on the SNP to just 3 percentage points, with the Conservative Party trailing in third.

The poll, by Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ shows 52% (+2) of Scottish respondents would vote ‘no’ and 42% (-2) would vote ‘yes’ if there were to be a referendum tomorrow. An unchanged 6% were don’t knows.

Mr Yousaf’s latest net approval rating is -17%, down ten points from last month with 22% (-1) approval and 39% (+9) disapproval of his overall job performance since he became Leader of the SNP. A further 30% (-5) said they neither approve nor disapprove of his job performance.

Only 22% of respondents cite Scottish Independence / the Union as one of the three issues that would most determine their vote if a General Election was held tomorrow.


See also: Yousaf signals end to universal free services


The figures emerge ahead of rallies to be held in favour of independence over the Coronation weekend.

When voters were asked who they would vote for if a UK General Election were held tomorrow, the Scottish National Party leads Labour by three points, two points less than in the previous Scottish tracker poll.

The Conservative Party, which finished second to the SNP in Scotland in 2019, is in third place, 14 points behind Labour.

Altogether, the results of the Westminster Voting Intention poll (with changes from 31 March-1 April in parentheses) are:

Scottish National Party 35% (-1)
Labour 32% (+1)
Conservative 18% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
Green 3% (+1)
Reform 2% (–)
Other 1% (–)

When voters are asked who they would vote for if a Scottish Parliamentary Election were held tomorrow, the Scottish National Party retains a lead in our constituency voting intention poll but now trails Labour in the regional list voting intention poll. 

Altogether the results of the Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention poll (with changes from 31 March-1 April in parentheses) are::

Scottish National Party 36% (-2)
Scottish Labour 32% (+4)
Scottish Conservatives 18% (–)
Scottish Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)
Scottish Green Party 2% (-1)
Reform UK Scotland 2% (–)
Alba Party 1% (+1)
Other 0% (-2)

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “What this poll shows is that the political tide has turned in Scotland – with Scottish Labour on the rise.

“With the SNP imploding under the pressure of internal fighting and sleaze, it is little surprise that the Scottish people are looking to Scottish Labour to boot out the SNP and the Tories and deliver the change Scotland needs.”

Pamela Nash, chief executive of Scotland in Union, said: “This is yet another poll which shows that support for remaining part of the UK is increasing and demonstrates that the people of Scotland do not want to break up our country.

“The results are a stark reminder to Humza Yousaf that voters want him to focus on what really matters to people – fixing the NHS crisis, addressing the cost-of-living crisis, and tackling poverty.

“It’s time for the people’s priorities, not the SNP’s.”

See also: Yousaf signals end to universal free services



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