Scotland 'will lose £9bn'

UK exports suffer huge slump since Brexit vote

Scotland’s GDP will slump because of the EU split, says SNP

The UK is the only country in north west Europe to suffer from declining exports since the Brexit vote in 2016, according to new research.

The House of Commons Library analysis, using IMF data, shows that every neighbouring European country has increased its exports over the past five years except for the UK.

The SNP leapt on the figures to argue that it proved how Boris Johnson had been wrong to claim Brexit would boost trade. The nationalists claimed that it will wipe £9 billion from Scotland’s GDP by £9 billion.

The Commons data shows the UK saw a decline in exports of -5.5% over five years, putting it behind 13 neighbouring countries: Ireland (+48.1%), Finland (+18.8%), Sweden (+15.5%), the Netherlands (+15%), Denmark (+14%), Luxembourg (+13.6%), Austria (+11.1%), Germany (+9.5%), Switzerland (+7.5%), France (+6.7%), Belgium (+6.2%), Norway (+4.8%) and Iceland (+0.8%).

On average, independent countries of Scotland’s size or smaller recorded the biggest increase in exports since 2016 at +16.7%, compared to an average increase of +11.9% for all countries in north west Europe.


When the impact of Covid-19 is taken into account, and figures compared from 2020 to date, the UK still has the worst decline in exports of any country in north west Europe at -19.3%.

The analysis also reveals that in the first four months after joining the EEC, the total value of UK goods exports increased by +16% compared to the first four months of 1972. In stark contrast, in the first four months of 2021 following Brexit, the total value of UK goods exports fell by -11% compared to the first four months of 2020.

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