Labour gains on Tories
Johnson’s lead narrows as election goes down to wire
Keep calm: The Prime Minister will be urging caution among his supporters
Boris Johnson’s hopes of forming a majority government hang by a thread after a normally reliable poll showed the Tories’ lead had narrowed significantly.
The YouGov poll, which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017, is forecasting the Tories to win 339 seats (43%), a majority of 28, with Labour on 231 (34%) and the Liberal Democrats winning three more seats to take their tally to 15.
It would be the Conservatives’ best result since 1987, but the forecast majority of 28 is significantly lower than the 68 predicted in the previous MRP model on 27 November.
The poll predicts the SNP to win 41 out of 59 seats in Scotland, regaining some of the losses the party suffered in 2017. Labour would hold 5 of 7 seats – only losing Glasgow NE and Midlothian with the Tories losing 5 seats to the SNP and gaining Lanark from the SNP.
YouGov warned that the margin of error could leave the Tories with just 311 seats, which would mean another hung parliament.
The Tories are on course to win in Labour heartlands such as Ashfield and Bassetlaw, but Labour’s clawback means it is likely to retain Tory target seats such as Tom Watson’s former constituency of West Bromwich East.