New data

Scottish economy expected to slow down next year

St James development Edinburgh

GDP fell as construction dipped (pic: Terry Murden)

Economic growth in Scotland is expected to remain subdued in 2020, according to new research.

PwC’s latest UK Economic Outlook projects growth of 1.3% in Scotland this year, down 0.3 percentage points from July’s projection, but ahead of the 1.2% expected across the UK. Growth next year is projected to fall back to 1%, in line with the UK and significantly below the UK’s long-term average rate of around 2%. 

GDP fell by 0.2% in Scotland in the second quarter of the year, largely because of a dip in construction output and new data suggests year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 0.6%.

The latest Economic Outlook also reports that UK GDP could be boosted by 4% – or £83 billion – if local areas with below-average productivity levels could make up even half of the gap.

The report examines UK regional productivity, revealing wide variations in domestic productivity per job, as well as from an international perspective. PwC concludes that UK output per worker is around 10-15% behind Germany, France and Sweden and more than 30% behind the US.

In terms of economic growth, only London and the South East are expected to grow at a faster rate than Scotland this year, while next year the ongoing economic uncertainty caused by Brexit will see growth fall across all 12 nations and regions measured by PwC.

According to the UK Economic Outlook, growth has slowed over the past two years primarily due to a dampening of business investment, resulting from both a lack of clarity over Brexit as well as heightened global trade tensions. 

Although consumer spending has continued to drive the UK economy, supported by recent rises in real incomes, a cooling housing market coupled with slower jobs growth means there is likely to be only moderate UK-wide consumer spending growth of around 1.2% in 2019 and 1.4% in 2020.

Stewart Wilson, Head of Government and Public Sector for PwC in Scotland, commented: “Our latest projections indicate that Scotland’s economy should perform relatively well both this year and next, slightly ahead of the UK overall, however growth remains subdued relative to long-term trends.

“The economy is likely to remain subject to volatility given the current uncertainty in the country and across the world, however, there could be a modest uplift in business investment should the UK finally secure an orderly Brexit. Even so, uncertainty across the global economy means growth is unlikely to return to previous levels next year.”

John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC commented: “Any potential weakness in private sector spending in 2020 should be offset at least in part by stronger trends in government spending. Both major political parties have shifted away from austerity, which is likely to support growth in 2020, irrespective of the outcome of the forthcoming general election. But this will also leave a bigger budget deficit to deal with in the longer term.”

PwC forecasts that all 12 UK nations and regions can expect modest but positive growth in 2019 and 2020. Although in previous years London has generally had the strongest growth rate of any UK region, PwC predicts it will grow only slightly faster than the UK average in 2019-20, due partly to the greater exposure of some London activities, such as the City, to adverse effects of Brexit uncertainty. 

The UK Economic Outlook says that most industry sectors can expect relatively modest growth in 2019-20, though short-term trends remain dependent on how events develop around Brexit.

The distribution, hotels and restaurants sector remained strong in the first half of 2019, but a slowdown is expected next year, whereas the weakened business services and finance sector could enjoy a modest recovery in 2020 assuming an orderly Brexit can be achieved. 

The manufacturing and construction sectors have experienced considerable volatility in recent years and are unlikely to see sustained recovery until there is clarity on both Brexit and the global trade outlook.

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