Labour support collapses
Blow to Sturgeon as poll shows Johnson on course for majority
Boris Johnson: picking up seats in Labour heartlands
Support for Labour is ebbing away across its traditional heartlands with a new poll forecasting Boris Johnson returning to Downing Street with a significant majority.
A new YouGov poll shows the Conservatives pulling ahead in almost every region of the country, including many traditionally leave-voting Labour heartlands. Many Labour supporters are switching to the Brexit Party.
YouGov said: “The Labour vote has taken its hardest hit in the North West, with support for the party falling by a massive 25 percentage points to 30 per cent since 2017.”
If replicated on 12 December the forecast would be bad news for the SNP whose leader Nicola Sturgeon has pinned her hopes of securing a second independence referendum on a pact with Labour.
She insisted she would not form a formal coalition with Labour if there is a hung parliament. Instead, she said her party could be back a minority Labour government led by Jeremy Corbyn on an issue-by-issue basis.
“If there’s a hung parliament … SNP MPs will seek to form a progressive alliance to lock the Tories out of government,” Ms Sturgeon said at the SNP campaign launch in Edinburgh.
However, according to a poll of polls conducted by Electoral Calculus, Mr Johnson will be returned to Downing Street next month with a 96-seat majority and 373 seats.
Labour, which had 262 seats in 2017 will be reduced to 182, with the Liberal Democrats on 25, SNP on 48, the Greens on one and Plaid Cymru on three.
The pollsters believe Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party will not win a single seat.
In Northern Ireland, it is predicted the DUP will lose its Belfast South seat to the Alliance Party.
The Conservatives have a lead in every English region apart from London and the North East, despite support for both main parties dropping across the country with more than a month to go until the vote.
The Brexit Party’s support has also increased, leading many top Brexiteers to call for Mr Farage to withdraw from the election to avoid splitting the Tory vote and potentially handing seats to Labour.
A Mail on Sunday / Deltapoll voting intention survey conducted between 31 October and 2 November put the Conservatives on 40%, followed by Labour on 28%. The Lib Dems were third with 14%, while the Brexit Party’s vote share was 11%.
A poll for The Independent puts the Conservatives on 37%, up from 31% a month earlier, while Labour saw its support rise to 29% from 26%. Support for the Liberal Democrats dropped to 16% from 20%. Polling company BMG surveyed 1,504 British adults between 5 November and 8 November.