More want to remain in UK

‘Secret’ survey shows more Yes voters now say No

Scottish independence march in Edinburgh

Marches attract thousands of supporters, but some are wavering (pic: Terry Murden)

Independence voters are switching sides according to a new poll showing more than half of voters in Scotland now want to stay in the UK, according to a new poll.

The survey by Survation, commissioned by the pro-independence group Progress Scotland, found that 51% would rather remain part of the union.

Of those who voted for independence in the 2014 referendum, 16% now say they “completely support Scotland staying part of the UK”, whereas 4% of No voters polled now fully back Scotland becoming independent.

However, the survey also provides more evidence that a No Deal Brexit would benefit the SNP despite the party campaigning against it.

It shows 59% of swing voters on Scottish independence are strongly opposed to a no-deal Brexit and say that if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, they would be more likely to vote for independence in a future referendum.

Progress Scotland is run by former SNP depute leader Angus Robertson and the results were published on the Survation website on Monday, but not released more widely.

Scottish Conservative constitution spokesman Adam Tomkins said: “It’s no wonder these independence campaigners want to keep the results of this poll quiet.

Pamela Nash, chief executive of the pro-UK group Scotland in Union, claimed the poll  of more than 2,000 adults had  “backfired spectacularly”.

She said: “No matter how Progress Scotland tries to spin the findings, its own figures show that massive numbers of former Yes voters have changed their minds and would now vote to stay in the UK.”

Keith Brown, SNP depute leader, said:  “People in Scotland overwhelmingly oppose leaving the EU and it’s abundantly clear that views are changing on independence as voters look to escape this Brexit nightmare.

“These are just the initial findings from the inaugural large-scale opinion poll for Progress Scotland and more results will follow.

“This is just the beginning of our work, which over time will allow us to better understand an ever-growing number of people in Scotland who are open-minded towards independence.” 

One Comment to ‘Secret’ survey shows more Yes voters now say No

    The confusion surrounding the latest Survation poll.carried out for think tank Progress Scotland..
    Here, respondents were asked to express their degree of support for independence on a scale of 0 to 10. Earlier polls did not use the same format, and should not be compared to this one.

    Earlier this month, a Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times found support for an independent Scotland had risen to 50%, with a clear majority preferring Scottish independence in the EU to remaining in the UK after Brexit.The result suggests the highest support for independence recorded in more than seven years of Panelbase surveys for The Sunday Times. ItIt represents a five-point gain on the 45% support the pollster registered on average in its surveys last year, and in the independence referendum in 2014, and is up from 49% in our last poll in June.Crucially, these Panelbase polls are comparable as they ask the same question.

    The truth is, the new Survation poll results show voters have actually swung towards independence since the previous poll. Here the percentage of respondents who say that they “completely support Scotland becoming independent” has increased from 24% in the previous poll (conducted in March) to 26% now. By contrast, the percentage of respondents who say that they “completely support Scotland staying part of the UK” has fallen in the same period from 40% to 37%.

    If you also take into account respondents who are not on one of the two extremes, the pro-Yes trend is even stronger. The percentage of respondents who are on the pro-independence side of the 0-10 scale has increased from 35% in March to 40% now, while the percentage of respondents on the anti-independence side of the scale has declined sharply from 58% to 51%.

    Mark Diffley, the independent polling adviser to Progress Scotland said: “Research for Progress Scotland is focused on the open-minded and undecided on Scottish independence. We do not poll on the Yes/No question, but the trend across different surveys shows a rise in support for independence since the 2014 referendum and our polling shows a growing proportion of open-minded voters.”

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