Stark warning for Scottish economy
No Deal Brexit would see GDP and exports plummet
Scotland’s exports could plummet says the report
A ‘No Deal’ Brexit would wipe 7% off Scotland’s GDP, up to 20% off exports and cause widespread disruption to the supply chain, according to a new report by the Scottish Government’s chief economist.
The paper, ‘No Deal’ Brexit – Economic Implications for Scotland, sets out two potential ’No Deal’ scenarios, one of which would see short term disruption to supply chains lasting for a number of months, with the second scenario looking at an extended period of disruption.
Potential impacts to the economy of these two scenarios include:
- Scotland’s trade with the EU would be significantly impaired, with a potential drop in Scottish exports by 10%-20%
- Heightened economic uncertainty, which could reduce business investment in Scotland by £1 billion in 2019
- A fall in exports and overseas investment, coupled with a broader economic slowdown, could result in a 10% – 30% depreciation in sterling
- International net migration into Scotland, currently +13,000 a year, would be expected to fall, and potentially turn negative, as a result of a depreciation in Sterling and wider economic slowdown
- An economic slowdown would be expected to result in the rate of unemployment increasing to between 5.5% – 8%, from current the current rate of below 4%. The top end of this rate would be equivalent to unemployment rising by around 100,000
Collectively, these pressures could push the Scottish economy into recession during 2019, with the potential for GDP to contract by between 2.5%-7%.
Scottish Government research has already shown that the UK Government’s proposed Brexit deal could see a 6% fall in GDP by 2030, worth over £1,600 per person in Scotland.
Derek Mackay: ‘a clear and present danger’ (pic: Terry Murden)
Commenting on the publication of the report, Economy Secretary Derek Mackay said: “This paper confirms that all forms of Brexit will harm Scotland’s economy and result in lower household incomes.
“People in Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU but our interests are being ignored by a UK Government that wants to take Scotland out of the European Single Market, which is eight times the size of the UK alone.
“However, the economic harm of Brexit will be exacerbated if the UK Government decides to crash out of the EU without a deal. Such an outcome, which the Prime Minister refuses to rule out, represents a clear and present danger to Scotland’s economy.
“There will be severe impacts for the economy, and for people and businesses across Scotland, under a ‘No Deal’ Brexit and these impacts have the potential to push the Scottish economy into a deep recession, similar in scale to the financial crash of 2008.
“When I met with the Chief Secretary to Treasury in Cardiff last week, I urged her to rule out a ‘No Deal’ Brexit and give me a cast iron guarantee that all lost EU funding would be replaced in full after Brexit. She could do neither.
“We will continue to call on the UK Government to immediately rule out the possibility of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit and extend the Article 50 process. As a responsible government we are also continuing – and indeed intensifying – our work to prepare for all outcomes as best we can. However, whilst we will do everything we can to prepare, we will not be able to mitigate all of the impacts of the UK Government’s approach.”
The report also sets out the regions and sectors which will see the greatest impact of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit, including agriculture and fishing, transport, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food and construction. However, all sectors would be negatively affected.
Corbyn in Barnier meeting
Jeremy Corbyn meets EU leaders to discuss options to break Brexit deadlock. Mr Corbyn is in Brussels discuss options for breaking the Brexit deadlock and to make clear that there is no majority for a no deal outcome.
The Labour Leader meets chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to discuss the Brexit process, just hours after the Prime Minister meets with EU leaders. Mr Corbyn is accompanied by Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer, Shadow Attorney General Shami Chakrabarti, and Shadow Business Secretary Rebecca Long Bailey. They will make it clear there is no majority for no deal in Parliament and discuss Labour’s proposals for finding a way through the Brexit deadlock.
Ahead of the meeting Mr Corbyn said: “The Conservative Government is running down the clock in an attempt to blackmail Parliament into accepting Theresa May’s bad deal over a chaotic no deal.
“We are saying loud and clear that there is no majority for no deal, and Labour will be working with politicians across the house to prevent a no deal outcome which would be so damaging to our economy and communities. Labour respects the result of the referendum, but we do not support the Prime Minister’s damaging approach which is focused more on appeasing factions of her party than finding a sensible solution that works for the whole country.
“With just 37 days until Brexit, Theresa May must accept that her historic defeats in Parliament and complete failure to reach a new deal mean her approach has failed. She should abandon her damaging red lines and finally work with Labour to reach a deal which works for our country.”